Doctor Comments on HPA H1N1 Published Findings

Andrew Johnson, 22 Dec 2009

Towards the end of November, 2009, the UK Health Protection Agency (HPA – whose logo is quite interesting) – published a document called Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in England: an overview of initial epidemiological findings and implications for the second wave…

A Doctor of Psychiatry contacted me to pass on his comments on this peculiar document.

I thought you might be interested in the epidemiology document from the HPA document regarding swine flu (I know I’m getting bored with this too!!). A friend of mine who is a Specialist Registrar in microbiology has been trying to find out actual data regarding the numbers and severity of this supposed major threat to our health. She emailed me with this attachment.

As you can see – she cannot find any ‘actual figures’ anywhere!! Strange given that the DoHs policy has been to spend millions of pounds on buying tamiflu for half the UK population, dispensed by call centre staff with minimal training and which incidentally has now found to be pretty much useless anyway by an independent article in the British Medical Journal. Oh and of course the vaccine!

A few main conclusions that I have drawn from it are:

·         Contrary to previous government leaflets claiming that no-one has immunity, this document shows that older adults are less susceptible to this flu, suggesting a degree of exposure and immunity

·         Almost all of the data is based on mathematically modelling – as very few people are actually swabbed and confirmed as having H1N1

·         Figure 2 is interesting – I was a house officer in 199-2000 during the last major seasonal flu epidemic in the UK when the hospitals were full of patients. As you can see even during the ‘July peak’ – the threshold for an epidemic which is STILL defined as 200 cases per 100,000 population weekly GP consultation rate was NOT reached – yet we have been continually told it is a pandemic (as the definition for this was recently changed by WHO).

·         The actual numbers of people infected are low

·         The vast majority experience a mild illness

·         Figure 4 shows the hospitalisation rate – only 170 in the entire UK have been hospitalised and the rates declined rapidly after July. (My partner Adrian who works on the designated swine flu ward at a busy hospital has only had 2 confirmed cases entirely)

·         Figure 5 shows the relatively small number of deaths – the comment states that ‘compared with seasonal influenza pandemic-associated mortality has been modest

·         Figure 7 shows how wide the modelling to be when estimating the actual number of cases. Even taking the upper limit, the numbers infected compared to the numbers hospitalised and the number of deaths are low

In conclusion if this is what the DoH has to justify vaccinating the entire population with an untested vaccine, then I and many other doctors are stunned.

The uptake rate of the vaccine in my Trust has only been low despite continual pressure, nurses turning up unannounced on wards etc and ‘offering’ the vaccine.

I know many colleagues who have become unwell after taking pandremix – in one case a nurse became so ill she had to go home. The nurses are actually informing people to take paracetamol as they are realising the vaccine causes significant arm pain, swelling, and rash. Colleagues who have had both seasonal and swine flu know the difference – the swine flu vaccine hurts, causes pain, weakness, and a bizarre red swelling and rash that I have never seen a vaccine cause.


 Two additional points I noticed about the document are:

  • No author(s) listed
  • Document Version control seems to show it got to version 3 in only 4 days – rather quick, it would seem to me…

     Please make up your own minds…



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